Treasury Yields Increase

Published August 8, 2025

Treasury yields rose earlier in the week as investors reacted to the latest economic data report. Yields continued to climb at the end of the week as investors digested a large futures sale, which may have been a technical error.

On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 50.1% in July, down from 50.8% reported in June. This was below analysts' expectations of 51.5%. PMI summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, contracting or remaining unchanged by surveying supply chain managers. Any number above 50% typically signals growth.

“July's PMI level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business,” said chair of the ISM survey, Steve Miller. “The Employment Index’s continued contraction and faster expansion of the Prices Index are worrisome developments.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of August 4 at 4.23% and traded as high as 4.28% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.84% and traded as high as 4.86% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, traders reacted to a recent surge in Treasury yields, triggering speculation behind the increase. Speculation amongst traders included that a technical error occurred due to a “fat finger” mistake which is unintentional typing or inputting errors in the futures market. The market speculated that someone originally intended to sell 8,000 10-year treasury bond futures contracts but ended up selling 80,000. Since then, the deal has been cancelled.

"Selling of 80,000 in 10-year futures is massive,” said managing director of rates and trading at Mischler Financial, Tom di Galoma. “It is like 20 times the size of a normal transaction."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 8/4 at 4.29%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.85%.